Tag: global economic

  • Definition of Embargo, Types, and Case Examples

    Definition of Embargo, Types, and Case Examples

    In short, the definition of an embargo is a prohibition issued by the government in a country to import or export certain goods or products to other countries.

    This term is common and familiar used in the world of economics, especially in trade and politics. For more on the meaning of embargo and its types, read this article to the end, okay!

    Definition of Embargo

    The definition of embargo is a prohibition imposed by the government of a country, to export or import certain goods or products to other countries in the framework of policies related to economics, politics, and other policies.

    Therefore, the term embargo can be concluded as an order given by a country, which aims to limit trade and exchange with certain countries.

    The term embargo is generally used in international politics and commerce. An embargo is declared in the form of a policy by the government in a country against other countries in order to isolate the country concerned.

    This will cause the government of an isolated country to be in a fairly difficult internal situation. This difficult internal situation occurred because of the influence of the embargo which caused the economy of the opposing country to suffer.

    The policy, will also limit all trade with a country or aim to reduce the exchange of certain goods.

    In general, embargoes are used as a political punishment for violations of a policy or agreement.

    In general, embargo policies are enforced to force a country to submit to and comply with countries that prohibit exports and imports.

    In other words, an embargo is a weapon that can paralyze a country’s economy.

    If the embargo is enforced for a long period of time, then of course the people in it will experience the impact of the embargo.

    People’s welfare will also decline and can have an impact on other sectors in a country.

    In addition, embargoes are also treated as a result of unfavorable political and economic relations between nations.

    For example, a military embargo is intended to prevent the exchange of military goods from occurring with a country.

    Indonesia itself had received an embargo from the United States. The US embargo was in the form of a ban on exports and imports of military weapons procurement from 1999 to 2005, due to human rights violations committed by ABRI in East Timor.

    America has often made trade embargo decisions and other economic sanctions because of the mandate from the United Nations.

    An example is after the attacks on September 11 in 2001, the United States imposed an embargo on trading commodities to several countries in the Middle East which were accused of being the cause of the attack.

    The embargo does not only apply to all goods and commodities that are exported or imported from the borders of a country.

    Often times, embargoes only apply to certain goods, such as oil and military equipment.

     

    Purpose of the Embargo

    As previously explained, a country is forced to impose an embargo on another country with the aim of making it difficult for the target country to obtain various kinds of commodities, and especially goods that are the country’s needs.

    The implementation of this embargo policy was triggered by a conflict of interest that occurred between the two conflicting countries, where the country that carried out the embargo hoped that the policy would be able to force other countries to voluntarily sit down together and resolve the issues that were going on between the two.

    The United States, is one of the countries that often implements embargo policies on countries that are considered problematic by them. Both with superpowers and countries globally.

    North Korea, Cuba, to Iran and Indonesia are examples of countries that had been hit by the economic sanctions embargo from the United States.

    Even so, the United States was also affected by this embargo regulation. America is suffering from a shortage as well as an increase in fuel prices, because members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) carry out an oil embargo on America.

    Embargoes are carried out by certain countries such as America, because they are considered a tool to influence.

    This embargo is quite often used by several countries that have trade agreements between countries, especially exports and imports.

    Because many countries depend on global trade, embargoes are also considered a powerful tool that can affect a country.

     

    Types of Embargo

    In general, embargoes are divided into two types. Here’s the explanation.

    1. Economic Embargo

    The first type of embargo is an economic embargo. Prohibition or stopping of commodity traffic from one country to another that has interests or is experiencing conflict.

    Including export and import activities between countries, such as trade embargoes on the defense system or defense equipment and oil.

    In short, the economic embargo is the prohibition of all forms of economic activities. Both export and import activities in countries that are currently receiving sanctions from the embargo.

    Considering the need for certain raw materials, this economic embargo will have an impact on shocks for a production company.

    So the production of certain goods, of course, will require raw materials imported from other countries at much more expensive prices and different levels of quality.

    The policy of this embargo, of course, will have a negative impact. Especially if the country concerned has a level of dependence on raw materials that must be imported or commodities from a country that is ready to import.

    This will bring considerable losses to countries experiencing embargo sanctions.

    The policy of the embargo will also have an impact on economic conditions in a country, namely making the affected economy unstable.

    Huge losses and a fairly severe impact of the economic embargo was massive layoffs.

    In addition, the two countries, both those that impose embargoes and are subject to embargo sanctions, can also be involved in a cold war.

    Because of that, many countries have finally implemented negotiations and even involved the WTO and the United Nations in order to be able to implement the steps they feel are the best in implementing the embargo action.

    This is done in the interest of peace between the two countries and the lives of the people in those countries.

    In addition, the embargo policy also has a certain period of time and has previously been adjusted to the decision of the country of the embargo giver.

    However, it must first contain an agreement between the two countries, if the previous embargo policy is to be lifted.

    In order to be able to lift the embargo policy, of course it will not be easy to do.

    In fact, in general, there will be negotiations that are quite tough and will take a long time to be able to lift the embargo policy.

    2. Information Embargo

    The second type of embargo is the cessation of publication or distribution of all news, both news and information within a certain period of time.

    In the Press Freedom Law itself, it has been stated that the prohibition of embargoes is a legal provision that must be obeyed.

    If a violation occurs, the news company will also receive strict sanctions and fines whose punishment will be determined later.

    A simple example of this information embargo is when a company announces the company’s profits in the mass media, then the public relations party of the company will also provide the data and information needed for publicity.

    However, there is some information that will explain that there is an embargo.

    Where previously the company would officially state that it was led by the leader of the company, then the data and all information provided would be prohibited from being published by the media.

     

    Impact of the Embargo

    As we knows, that the main purpose of imposing an embargo is to force the target country so that the country can remain subject to the wishes of the country implementing the embargo.

    This step is one of the weapons that is considered quite powerful to cripple the economy of the country affected by the embargo.

    The unavailability of products and basic needs in a country will certainly make the economy in that country shake.

    The existence of this instability, will have an impact on the decline in the level of welfare in the country.

    Not only the economic downturn, the embargo sanctions can also have an impact on the cold war and disrupt world peace.

     

    How to Overcome the Embargo?

    Considering the impact that can harm many parties, the embargo has become an event that is often difficult to avoid.

    Countries that have been subject to embargo sanctions, will feel some adverse effects.

    However, there are several efforts that can be made by countries that are subject to sanctions to survive the embargo, namely by focusing on surviving by optimizing the resources owned by the country.

    For example, when a country is subject to economic embargo sanctions which then cause imports to that country to be stopped.

    So, the way to overcome this situation is to develop products independently according to the needs of the community.

    However, maybe the quality and quantity of these products will be different, but by taking these steps, at least they are able to cover people’s needs for these products.

    Another effort that can be made by countries that are subject to embargo sanctions is to establish good relations with other countries.

    This needs to be done, so that the country is able to survive even though the country is experiencing an embargo.

     

    Some Examples of Embargo Cases

    For a more complete explanation of this embargo, here are some cases of embargoes that have previously occurred in various countries.

    1. Economic Embargo on Iran by the United States

    America often imposes sanctions embargoes, including economic embargo sanctions on Iran, namely in the form of prohibiting exports of crude oil to Iran and the sanctions embargo, announced by Barack Obama, who serves as President of the United States.

    At that time, Iran also experienced a number of losses such as its potential market for oil exports.

    In fact, when the economic embargo sanctions were applied, oil exports from Iran immediately fell to 1.5 million barrels per day.

    Thus, Iran can only rely on exports to a few countries in Europe and the Middle East.

    Then in 2015, the United States lifted the sanctions embargo on the condition that Iran must be willing to reduce its nuclear weapons production capacity.

    By lifting the sanctions of the economic embargo, the export activities of crude oil in Iran again increased to 1 million bpd and Iran became part of the Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as a form of Iran’s commitment to the nuclear weapons control program.

    Then in 2018, America again imposed an embargo on Iran. The embargo sanctions did not only affect the two countries involved, but also had an impact on the global economy.

    2. An arms embargo by the European Union on Guinea

    In 2018 the United Nations passed a resolution to impose an arms embargo on the country in South Sudan. The policy was adopted by the United Nations, as a response to the existence of conflicts and ethnic violence that continues to occur in the country.

    The resolution, proposed by America. Of the 15 members of the UN Security Council, nine countries supported the embargo policy, including Russia, Ethiopia, China, Equatorial Guinea, Kazakhstan and Bolivia, which abstained.

    In addition to implementing an arms embargo, the UN Security Council also passed another resolution in the form of imposing a travel ban and imposing an asset freeze on South Sudan’s deputy defense chief.

    South Sudan’s deputy defense chief is considered one of the main actors responsible for the conflict and ethnic violence in his country.

    3. Embargo on Cuba

    In 2014, the United States also imposed economic sanctions on Cuba and it has cost Cuba 3.9 billion US dollars or approximately more than Rp. 49.9 trillion in the last year in the foreign trade sector.

    The total loss due to the embargo from America for 55 years even reached Rp1, 377 T, as stated by the Cuban government ahead of Cuba’s annual report to the United Nations in 2014.

    The report is submitted by the Cuban side to the United Nations every year to encourage the lifting of the economic embargo on the country.

    Then for decades, Cuba has also received support from many countries, which is then manifested in UN resolutions relating to the urge to lift the embargo.

    In 2013, 188 countries also supported the resolution, but only two countries voted against it, namely America and Israel.

    It is known that America first imposed an economic embargo on Cuba in 1960 and had begun a full embargo in 1961 after Fidel Castro won his victory in the Cuban uprising in 1959.

    According to reports, if Cuba does not get the sanctions of the embargo, Cuba can make a profit of up to 205.8 million US dollars from the sale of rum and cigars.

  • Understanding the Meaning of Economic Bubbles

    Understanding the Meaning of Economic Bubbles

    There is a phenomenon in economic studies called economic bubbles or bubble economy . This phenomenon occurs in many countries and has a long history. In this article we will study the general definition of a bubble economy or economic bubbles and some of the events in which the phenomenon of economic bubbles occurs.

    According to its basic concept, economic bubbles or bubble economy refers to a situation where the price of a product or asset in a certain market segment experiences an unusual or unnatural increase in value/price, and occurs in a relatively fast time.

    There are many examples of economic bubble phenomena that occur and involve different economic sectors, including the housing sector or better known as housing bubbles and the stock market or stock bubbles .

    In its development, there have been many studies that examine more comprehensively the concept of the bubble economy , including the question of what is meant by an unreasonable price increase and how to categorize time as relatively fast. However, we will not discuss this in this paper.

    The following are some examples of events that illustrate the phenomenon of economic bubbles .

    One of the classic examples of the bubble economy phenomenon occurred in the 1637’an era known as The Tulip Mania .

    Since the late 1590s, tulips have become one of the commodities imported from Turkey to the Netherlands. Later, this flower became phenomenal in the Netherlands and became one of the trendsetters , especially as a decoration on clothing. Because of the high charm of tulips in the eyes of the public, the demand for these flowers soared rapidly with increasing public demand, until its peak in the early 1637’s.

    The high demand, which is not matched by the availability of tulips, has made the price of tulips soar to the equivalent of 40 times the average salary of Dutch workers per year. Unfortunately this did not last long, especially when market participants holding tulips started selling the flowers to the market and other market participants followed suit, causing the price of tulips to plummet within a month. It is said that after the incident, the price of tulips was not more expensive than the price of a red seed.

    Economic bubbles in the 1997-1998 Asian economic crisis.

    Not a few studies have stated that the 1997-1998 Asian economic crisis was caused, among other things, by the bursting of the economic bubble, considering that in the late 1980s and mid-1990s, interest rates in developing countries in the Asian region tended to be high, far above interest rates. interest offered by developed countries.

    The high interest rate is seen as an attraction by investors, resulting in a very large capital inflow to developing countries, including South Korea, the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia. As a result, the economic growth of these countries increased rapidly to be in the range of 8% to 12%.

    Even so, the high growth was solely due to the large inflows of capital, not supported by investment in the real sector and productive assets owned by these countries. In other words, the economic fundamentals of these countries can be said to be porous.

    As a result, when the Central Bank of the United States began to raise the benchmark interest rate ( Fed rate ) after being able to recover from the domestic economic recession, the flow of funds that previously existed in Asia began to move rapidly towards the US market which was considered more stable.

    In addition, the higher the interest rate ( Fed rate ), the stronger the US$ exchange rate against other countries’ currencies. These two factors led to massive capital flight from Asia. In the end, this caused a panic rush in the banking sector, when many people collectively withdrew the cash they had stored in commercial banks, resulting in the collapse of Asian currencies.

    The case of the economic bubble that hit internet-based companies ( .com companies ) in the mid-1990s to early 2000s.

    Another example of the occurrence of economic bubbles in the modern world is the period from the mid-1990s to the early 2000s. At that time technological developments entered a new phase, where there was a boom in internet-based technology companies. This period is also known as the era of The New Economy , which was marked by the emergence of internet – based companies or better known as . com companies .

    When these companies began to go public , the value of their shares skyrocketed many times over, offset by high expectations of market participants and the general public for the success of the new economic era. At that time, all issues related to the internet and online became the main topic of every conversation with optimistic tones.

    Unfortunately, all of these things are not followed by prudent company management , solid financial foundations, and optimal analysis of operating profit/loss calculations; in other words, the focus of attention is the marketing factor alone.

    Until when the United States Central Bank ( the Federal Reserve ) again raised its benchmark interest rate in the 1999-2000 range, these companies began to lose financial strength. This was exacerbated by the number of start-up companies that posted large losses in their financial statements.

    In the end, all public expectations did not materialize, and the economic bubble burst. Records say there is more than US$ 8 trillion evaporated in the market. Even big companies like Amazon.com, Cisco System, Priceline.com, to Yahoo! experienced a decline in stock prices by more than 90% (Jimenez, Alvaro, Understanding Economic Bubbles , 2011).

    Furthermore, there are several theories that try to explain the characteristics of the economic bubble, one of which is the research conducted by Thompson and Hickson.

    The study conducted by the two mentioned two types of bubbles , namely short -term informational monopoly bubbles . This type of economic bubble is usually characterized by the absence of an increase in the supply of products/assets. These bubble characteristics are also known as mini bubbles .

    These bubbles tend to occur through market manipulation mechanisms by market participants who have information about certain assets/products. With financial strength, certain market participants began to speculate on the asset. This attracted the attention of other market participants and began to hunt for similar assets, resulting in a drastic increase in the value/price of the asset in the market.

    This condition is usually unpredictable from the start and it is not known how long it will last. Therefore, this phenomenon is not accompanied by an increase in supply to offset demand .

    Furthermore, the bubble will burst when the perpetrator performs a massive asset disposal, thereby dropping the price/value of the asset.

    As we know, there are at least two behaviors ( economic behavior ) that we can find in market participants, namely those who make decisions with a long-term horizon and prioritize the fundamental factors of an asset, and market participants who focus more on short-term profits, by making purchases. asset at a low price and release it again when the price is high (market participants of this type are known as speculators).

    In this case, the phenomenon of The Tulip Mania can be categorized as short-term informational monopoly bubbles .

    Meanwhile , the next bubble is a long-term government involved bubble , which tends to last longer and is characterized by an increase in product/asset inventory.

    Bubbles like this usually occur as a consequence of taking or changing economic policies (monetary and/or fiscal) and other policies by the relevant authorities.

    However, different from the first type of bubble , here policy makers have calculated and calculated the impact of implementing the policy, both positively and negatively, thus including anticipatory steps as compensation for these impacts.

    The case of .com companies is an example of long-term government induced bubbles . This is evidenced by the growing number of .com -based companies even today, but with capitalization that is not accelerating as fast as in this case (Thompson, E., and Charles R. Hickson, Predicting bubbles, Global Business and Economic Review , Vol 8, 2006).

    In closing, the phenomenon of economic bubbles ( economic bubbles or bubble economy ) has occurred since several centuries ago until now. These bubbles can occur due to purely speculative factors, but can also be caused by the emergence of consequences for economic policies taken by policy-making authorities. **